baked in the cake 「織り込み済み」#2 [辞書に載っていない表現]

前回の price in と並んで、もうひとつ「織り込み済み」で頭に浮かんだのが baked in the cake である。この表現も載っている辞書はほとんどないようだが、「ケーキに焼き込む」とは面白く、覚えやすいのではないだろうか。

なお in の代わりに into が使われたり、the cake が落ちたりする場合もある。


- This is the first annual budget under Abe to include measures aimed at shoring up the economy ahead of a consumption tax hike.
Now that the hike has been baked into the budget, postponing it would require not only revising the relevant legislation, but also submitting a supplementary budget adjusting for the loss of tax revenue.
("Japan approves $18bn in stimulus measures ahead of tax hike" Nikkei Asian Review March 28, 2019)


"When Did Baked In Become So Baked In?" (Slate, Oct. 14, 2016)


筆者によれば、"projections, expectations, and other news items … already taken into account in the market" という経済金融用語として1980年ごろから使われていたが、近年は政治の分野までに使用が広がっているという ("Baked in seems, well, baked into our political analysis these days.")。


- The people showing up to rallies are baked in supporters. They are people who are going to vote for Trump, no questions asked.
- Clinton’s e-mail story and the other stories are sort of baked in the cake.
- The great majority of the electorate’s support appears baked in.
- Partisan political preferences are so thoroughly baked in that voters may be impossible to sway.
- What new could you possibly tell a voter about Hillary Clinton that they don’t already know? On Hillary, the cake is already baked in the voter’s mind.

ただこうした実例を見ると、「織り込み済み」という訳ではうまくない場合もありそうだ。Urban Dictionary には、下記のように3つの語義と例文が載っていたが、「切り離すことができない」「元からある」「避けられない」「どうなるか分かっている」「はじめから見えている」といった感じにもなるだろうか、訳語はいろいろ工夫する必要があるようだ。

- baked in the cake
1) a situation that is so involved and interwoven which is basically impossible to be fully extricated
2) something which is so obvious or basically impossible to avoid
3) already reflected in a stock's market price by the expected information such as projected earning or unconfirmed news report

A serious global recession is baked in the cake
The dilemma of long-lasting unemployment rate is baked in the cake
The interest hike at the Fed's next meeting is baked in the cake

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